{"id":568,"date":"2024-08-19T16:33:57","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T16:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monblard.com\/analytics\/?page_id=568"},"modified":"2024-09-03T08:28:49","modified_gmt":"2024-09-03T08:28:49","slug":"ysr-recession-macro-model","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/monblard.com\/analytics\/ysr-recession-macro-model\/","title":{"rendered":"YSR Recession Macro Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This is a standard model that is used by a large number of prominent investors, banks and hedge funds to estimate the impending possible recession. (either in the classic form or passively modified adjustment of the calculation and data collection)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Although predicting a recession is very difficult, this model has been able to predict the last 7 crises and recessions since 1970, since data was available. (Of course, past returns and data are no guarantee of future returns or similar behavior – no one knows the exact future and you cannot use this indicator as signal for buy or sell any financial instrument however, this model has deep economic logic involved)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model is based on the behavior of investors, government instruments and their data. (we do not provide a more detailed specification of the modified calculation and data source, trade secret)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The burgundy line shows the period when the blue line (showing a specific calculation of financial instruments issued by the government) has fallen below the zero level, which may mean an approaching recession or a cooling of the economy. Sometimes the recession occurred shortly after crossing the zero line, other times only when the blue line got from the sublevel from the bottom to the top and crossed the zero line from the bottom to the top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The gray line shows the periods of official recessions in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Of course, the model does not tell you to start shorting, sell positions and the like. The model only warns investors of possible impending danger in the macroeconomic market \/ in the US.


How we use this indicator:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not investment advice or guidance. This artice is only for informational, educational and marketing purpose. We are not financial advisors just data\/quant analysts. Read the full disclaimer below. These are just our personal experiences, which please take only as information and possible teaching\/education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You will read these things after purchasing the full version of the indicator<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How (personally) do we use the Next indicator and what do the other lines\/graphics represent and how do we understand them? On what timeframe do we use the indicator? Do we use it solo or with other indicators? With what?

On what timeframe do we use the indicator?

What stocks\/assets do we (only personally) use the indicator for? (not financial advice)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

DISCLAIMER \/ INFORMATION:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Before using this indicator or any of our strategies, you must read our full disclaimer and agree to our terms and conditions \u2013 read them here (click).<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is a standard model that is used by a large number of prominent investors, banks and hedge funds to estimate the impending possible recession. 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